Research + Analysis — Emma Beals

Research and Analysis

LATEST

A World at War: What Is Behind the Global Explosion of Violent Conflict? - Foreign Affairs

Humanitarian Blackmail: How Belligerents Use Negotiations Over Aid to Extort the West - Foreign Affairs

Syrian Security Sector Research — Understanding the logic behind the Syrian regime’s violence - EIP Research published with MEI

A short public-facing overview highlighting some of the findings from a years-long multi-disciplinary research project into the Syrian security sector and its relationship to the Syrian civilian population. The broader research project resulted in five major reports [Refugee Return in Syria, 2019, the rest were not released publicly] and dozens of smaller briefing papers that informed recommendations and policy across a wide range of policy areas.

Estimating Covid-19 rates in Syria’s first wave — Leveraging community mortality indicators to infer COVID-19 mortality and transmission dynamics in Damascus, Syria — Nature Communications

Beginning as an independent multi-disciplinary investigation into the real rates of Covid-19 in Damascus during Syria’s first wave of infection in 2020 for Syria in Context [COVID-19 Spreads out of Control in Damascus, August 6, 2020] during which time the regime was hiding the real toll of the virus. This work resulted in a collaboration with Imperial College, London, that grew from informal [Coronavirus Update Number 19, August 19, 2020], to a pre-print through Imperial College and later a peer-reviewed publication in Nature Communications [link above] in April 2021. Throughout, the initial findings independently reached by Syria in Context in August 2020 stood up. This work was covered by a range of global media, including PBS Newshour, Al-Jazeera, and The National, as well as informing policy and donor support, and providing a framework for a multi-disciplinary approach to epidemiological modelling of Covid-19 rates in closed states that was used elsewhere during the pandemic.

Breaking Aleppo and Breaking Ghouta - Atlantic Council DFRLab reports

Exhaustive dossiers produced on short-turnaround detailing the horrors of the last weeks of each siege and the forced evacuation of these areas. Reports have been heavily drawn on by the OPCW, jurists, policy-makers and scholars.

Syria in Context — Emma and Tobias Schneider launched an ongoing analysis project, Syria in Context, in May 2018, which ran until the end of March 2021. Syria in Context was a weekly briefing on Syria, featuring news and analysis for those who work on the conflict. An archive of this work is available here: subscribe.syriacontext.com

Analysis

Applying Lessons from Syria to other Contexts - Emma's Syria work and policy experience informed a non-paper on ‘Lessons Learned in Syria’ to help inform a best practice integrated response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which was utilized by US and European officials, EU Ministers, and was discussed in private roundtables attended officials and agencies in the early phases of the Ukraine war. It also informed strategic analysis for the European Leadership Network [Approach with caution: Lessons for Ukraine from the Russian approach to ceasefires and humanitarian access in Syria, March 2022] and Carnegie MEC [How the Lessons of the Syria War May Safeguard Lives in Ukraine, April 2022], which was picked up in global media such as CNN, Financial Times, Washington Post, Foreign Policy, The National, France 24, and others. It has also informed private advice to key stakeholders on approaches to humanitarian access in post-coup Myanmar.

Lessons from Syria’s Aid Response: The Case for Continued Cross-border Operations - MEI

It’s time to reassert the lost ground on humanitarian access and reassert the right to aid - Substack

After the Earthquake: Possible Paths Toward Humanitarian Gains in Syria - Carnegie MEC

Approach with caution: Lessons for Ukraine from the Russian approach to ceasefires and humanitarian access in Syria - European Leadership Network

How the Lessons of the Syria War May Safeguard Lives in Ukraine - Carnegie MEC

Consequences of the War in Ukraine on the Middle East - Carnegie MEC

The Context of a Refugee Return in Syria - Carnegie MEC / EIP

Not (Just) Another Rigged Syrian Election: Implications for Settling the War - Washington Institute

Humanitarian Aid and the Biden Administration: Lessons from Yemen and Syria - Washington Institute

Obstacles to a Free and Fair Presidential Election in Syria - Carnegie MEC / EIP

Why Is Russia Undermining International Efforts in Syria? - Defense One

Brussels conference highlights tensions between Syria’s growing needs and political stalemate - MEI